Panelsamtal: Modernizing deterrence theory

Welcome to an open discussion on how deterrence is being rethought to address today’s complex world.

In the film A House of Dynamite (currently on Netflix), the US President is astonished that deterrence has failed and that, within minutes, approximately 2.7 million people (a quarter of Sweden’s population) would die from a single missile strike, triggering a nuclear war. For the President, being well-prepared should have been enough to prevent such an attack: Yet it was not. In the movie, deterrence has failed…

Although fictional, this scenario forces us to confront an uncomfortable question: Could this happen in reality?

Spoiler alert: This panel discussion will arguably answer yes to that question.

What constitutes credible deterrence today? How do we view deterrence now, and how does it differ from the past? The weakening of the world order, growing regional instabilities, inter-alliance frictions, emerging digital and other new technologies, the spread of hybrid threats, and shifting power dynamics, all of these factors challenge the fragile balance of terror. To maintain credible deterrence, we must be humble and acknowledge both what we know and what we do not know. We need to update classical deterrence theory and adapt its approach to today’s context. Our thinking and strategic approach must be reevaluated to address growing threats and challenges while preventing escalation.

Join us for an open discussion on rethinking deterrence for today’s complex world.

Moderator:

Kjell Engelbrekt, Professor of Political Science, Swedish Defence University

Paneldeltagare:

Michelle Black, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Nebraska

Ian Anthony, Research Analyst, Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI)

Lars Wikman, Defence Policy Analyst at the Swedish Parliamentary Research Service with a research affiliation to the Department of War Studies, Swedish Defence University

July Decarpentrie, PhD Candidate, Department of War Studies, Swedish Defence University

Anmälan

Anmäl dig via länken senast den 16 februari för att delta: Länk till anmälan