AI reshapes international water diplomacy

A new study shows that artificial intelligence (AI) has the power to both improve and undermine international water negotiations.

“We need to build the capacity of water professionals and negotiators to question AI, to ask where the data come from, what assumptions are built in, and how these tools shape what’s possible in a negotiation", says Kyungmee Kim, Associate Senoir Lecturer in Political Science at the Swedish Defence University.

Artificial Intelligence is transforming nearly every sector of society, and international water diplomacy is no exception. In a new study published in the journal Ambio, researchers from the Swedish Defence University and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) investigate how AI is beginning to shape the ways knowledge is produced and negotiated in efforts to manage shared freshwater resources across national borders.

Globally, over 420 river basins are shared by two or more countries. The governance of these waters has long been a source of both cooperation and conflict. Yet until now, the role of AI in shaping how countries collaborate, or clash, over water has remained underexplored.

“While there is an established research agenda on the dynamics of water conflicts, the role of Artificial Intelligence in international water dispute management has flown under the radar. This research helps to fill that gap”, says Kyungmee Kim.

New technologies, new power dynamics

AI offers new tools for modelling, forecasting, and communicating water data, but these tools are not always politically neutral. The use of AI can alter not only the technical management of transboundary water but also the narratives, trust structures, and diplomatic relations surrounding it.

“The challenges aren’t just about AI’s water and energy consumption as the operation of, for example, server rooms requires a lot of energy. We need to think about how AI reshapes the very production and circulation of knowledge. Who gets to define what counts as credible data, and who is left behind?”, says Kyungmee Kim.

The findings suggest a tension: on the one hand, open-access AI tools have the potential to support countries with fewer technical resources by providing them with powerful modelling capabilities. On the other hand, more advanced, often closed-source systems like large language models or proprietary forecasting tools, may reinforce inequalities or create false impressions of objectivity.

“AI can deepen the politicisation of water governance. For instance, if one country introduces an AI forecasting tool into negotiations and frames its outputs as neutral, it could undermine trust, especially if other stakeholders lack access to the same models or don't understand how they work”, says Kyungmee Kim.

Qualitative interview study

To understand the real-world implications of AI in water diplomacy, the researchers conducted 14 interviews with experts from academia, non-governmental organisations, and intergovernmental bodies. The aim was to capture insights from professionals with hands-on experience in managing international water disputes.

“We wanted to hear from people who sit at the intersection of diplomacy, science, and policy. These are the people already seeing how AI is being introduced, sometimes tentatively, sometimes enthusiastically, into their work”, says Kyungmee Kim.

The interviews revealed not just optimism, but concern. Several respondents warned that AI systems could unintentionally embed biases, especially if the data they are trained on reflect historical power asymmetries. Others called for greater transparency, explainability, and training for decision-makers using AI-assisted tools.

A call for responsible and equitable innovation

The researchers argue that integrating AI into international water governance must be done with caution. Transparency in how AI tools are designed, who funds them, and how they are used is critical. But so is investing in the human side of the equation.

“We need to build the capacity of water professionals and negotiators to question AI, to ask where the data come from, what assumptions are built in, and how these tools shape what’s possible in a negotiation”, says Kyungmee Kim.

While the positive effects of AI in water diplomacy are still largely hypothetical, the researchers see this as a turning point. There is a growing interest in using AI to solve complex diplomatic challenges, but the way these tools are introduced will have long-lasting effects on cooperation, fairness, and trust.

“Ultimately, AI is not just a technical tool. It’s a political actor in its own right, and it’s time we start treating it that way”, says Kyungmee Kim.